Location of Russia's Kursk region on the map

Source: https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/belgorod-grenzregion-angriff-ukraine-100.html?at_medium=mastodon&at_campaign=tagesschau.de

Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region since 6 August has drawn a lot of discussions. Some analysts indicated that this incursion wouldn’t be able to alter the final result of Ukraine’s war against Russia, even though it has from a certain sense embarrassed the Russian side.

According to the Kyiv Post, launching this incursion aimed to divert part of Russian forces from the front lines in the Donbas region to help alleviate the pressure faced by the Ukrainian troops there, and also to raise Ukraine’s stake in any possible negotiations with Russia including trading Ukraine’s territories or facilities taken by Russia. Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that occupying the settlements in Russia’s Kursk region was intended to set up a security zone on the Russian soil, and to make Russia bear military and economic costs, as well as to get some Ukrainian prisoners of war held by Russia back. While many observers believed that Ukraine’s operation mainly bore a purpose of drawing a sustained support of Ukraine’s backers to Ukraine’s war with Russia.

Given the deteriorating situation on the front lines facing the Ukrainian forces in the Donbas region since last summer and a declining morale of the Ukrainian soldiers as a result of that in the meantime, the Ukrainian government has been facing a growing pressure from a significant part of Ukraine’s supporters in the West and also from the Ukrainian public. Therefore, launching the incursion into Russia’s Kursk region at the moment can be a very ambitious attempt made by the Ukrainian government. A senior advisor to the Ukrainian government told the news agency NBC that a big incursion into Russia’s territory had been prepared for a year already before it really happened starting from 6 August.

Against the current complex social, economic, and political situation within Ukraine, across the European continent, as well as in the United States, there is no doubt that, from Ukraine’s perspective, proving that the Ukrainian forces still have the capacity to fight with Russia should be the most urgent task for the Ukrainian government in order to bring a certain degree of confidence to Ukraine’s Western supporters and also to the Ukrainian public, as far as it can.

For carrying out the attack on the Kursk region, the Ukrainian military has selected over 10000 well-trained and best-equipped military personnel to join this operation. According to Russia’s Ministry of Defence , Ukraine’s operation has been halted, and since the incursion began, till 17 August the Ukrainian side had already lost up to 3160 soldiers plus 44 tanks, 3 U.S.-made HIMARS multiple rocket launch systems and some other military equipment. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President claimed that Ukrainian troops have strengthened their positions in certain parts of the Kursk region and are expected to move further.

Many analysts already pointed that it is just a timing issue for the Russian military to push Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region. What could be a possible situation facing Russia and Ukraine after then? Would Russia take into account adjusting the country’s strategies or tactics toward the Russia-Ukraine war? So would Ukraine? What would likely be the next steps for Russia and Ukraine in the near term?

In response to Ukraine’s attack on the Belgorod region of Russia, which borders the Ukrainian territory, Russian President ever said that if the Ukrainian side continued to launch incursion into Russia’s regions, Russia would take into account creating a buffer zone within Ukraine’s territory. The Kursk incursion made by the Ukrainian forces would likely affirm Russia’s decision in carrying out such a plan. Nevertheless, forming and implementing a plan of creating a security zone would be a very big task for Russia, given that the Russian military has concentrated a large part of its forces in the Donbas region to enhance and further improve the Russian forces’ advantageous positions there. Therefore, how possible it could be and how long it would take for Russia to carry out this plan would be uncertain; mostly it would depend on whether and how likely the Russian forces can be coordinated, allocated, and deployed more effectively, under the support of other critical government agencies.

Besides that, there is also a need to see that if Russia and Ukraine manage to go to the negotiation table and reach a ceasefire agreement, Russia may abandon its plan of creating a buffer zone within the Ukrainian territory.

Generally, it is assumed that the Kursk incursion would have made the Russian government sense the significance and seriousness in strengthening the security management in the border regions of Russia and Ukraine; and it could push Russia to re-adjust some of the country’s measures or tactics in handling the war situation in these regions.

As for Ukraine, it is not certain how long the Ukrainian forces can manage to hold their positions in the Kursk region, given that a shortage of manpower has been one of the most serious challenges for the Ukrainian military. Since April this year, the Ukrainian government has further tightened the country’s conscription measures in order to bring more men in their fighting age to the front lines. Nevertheless, a significant number of Ukrainian men have been making efforts to leave the country since the new measures were adopted.

In an interview with Russian-1 Channel last week, Belarusian President Lukashenko told that his country recently has received a large number of Ukrainians in their fighting age fleeing the war in Ukraine; some of them were offered jobs and accommodation by Belarus while some others flowed to other countries; 99% of these Ukrainians are men tending to escape fighting.

Apart from encountering a problem of securing enough manpower to the front lines, the Ukrainian government also faces a big challenge of dealing with the worsening relationship between the government and the Ukrainian society. Over the past two years especially since the failed counteroffensive, the Ukrainian government has been facing an increasingly tougher situation in dealing with a series of domestic affairs. For instance, according to an opinion survey released by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) in early June, around 50% of the respondents viewed that the country’s business environment such as business transparency and fairness has deteriorated under the current Ukrainian government.

In addition, the evolving economic, social, and political situation in many European countries and also in the United States would generate some uncertainties for Ukraine regarding to what level Ukraine can continue to receive military and economic support from these countries. Significantly, this issue will depend on whether the Ukrainian government would be able to manage a series of tough issues including the country’s economic conditions, the domestic political environment, the relationship between the government and the Ukrainian society, and most crucially the Ukrainian government’s capacity in handling the country’s ongoing war with Russia. Apparently, the evolving trend of all these tough issues hasn’t been in a favourable condition for the Ukrainian government so far.

Should the Ukrainian forces be driven out of Russia’s Kursk region, the Ukrainian government by then will face a new domestic and regional situation, which would likely be more severe for the Ukrainian government to handle, just as we have seen that the Ukrainian government has been facing a tougher situation after its failed counteroffensive, in contrast to that before its counteroffensive operation.

At the moment, obviously, for the Ukrainian government, even though facing daunting challenges, the most urgent tasks are to secure the western support by deploying any possible means on the one hand, and to get more of its own men to fight on the front lines on the other hand.

For prolonging a war, all the factors and possible scenarios just mentioned above are in need of taking into account by the Ukrainian side. Ultimately, the relevant parties will have to question once again that what is the real value for prolonging this war, against the backdrop that a wider portion of the Ukrainian society and the Ukrainian government have gone to a different direction?