During Trump’s first term, the development of China-U.S. economic and trade relations had already drawn enormous international attention, as a result of a series of economic and trade measures taken by the U.S. government.

The policy measures adopted by the then Trump administration roughly consisted of raising tariffs on Chinese products, restricting the exports of the U.S. high-end products or technologies to China, and encouraging the U.S. companies to return to the United States in order to boost domestic supply chains and manufacturing industries etc. By then, a wide range of sectors from both China and the United States had opposed the relevant measures taken by the U.S. government in various means.

Through the 2020 election, the then democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden had criticized the then Trump government’s trade policies on raising tariffs and imposing other restrictive measures. Being a critic of the former Trump government’s tariff measure reflected one of the major policy differences between the then two presidential candidates. In retrospect, we shouldn’t rule out that that difference might have done Biden a favour in the 2020 election.

However, after the Biden administration assumed office, instead of lifting up the restrictions, apart from having inherited the trade measures taken by the former Trump government, the Biden administration has further raised the level of relevant measures in managing China-U.S. economic and trade relations. For instance, over the past few years, the Biden government has extended the tariff measures to cover more categories of Chinese products including electric vehicles, batteries, solar cells and so on. In addition to that, a series of more targeted export control measures in the technology field in line with the “small yard and high fence” policy, aiming to further tighten exports of high-end tech products to China, have been adopted and implemented.

In an aerial view, shipping containers are seen stacked at the Port of Oakland on 7 August 2023, in Oakland, California. 

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images. Cited from CNN.

If, by the end of Trump’s first term, the repercussions of the trade war between China and the United States hadn’t fully shown up yet, over the past four years, along with the Biden government further deepening the trade war with China, as we have seen, the impacts of it have gradually appeared in various ways. The complaints from a wide range of sectors in the U.S. including trade associations, manufactures, retailers, technology firms, and apparel and footwear industry as well as the American consumers, concerning the trade measures taken by the Biden government, have kept growing up.

For instance, in May 2024, some major footwear business brands, in a letter jointly written to the U.S. president, urged the Biden administration to lift up the tariffs, and expressed that “we are confident that removing 301 tariffs will alleviate a costly burden in this key area and translate to savings for our shoppers”.

People shop at a retail shoe store in Manhattan on 5 January 2024, in New York City. 

Spencer Platt/Getty Images. Cited from CNN.

Apart from the complaints from the major footwear brands, in response to a duty measure introduced by the Biden administration on 14 May 2024 with regard to raising tariffs on 387 categories of Chinese products covering electric vehicles, lithium-ion electric vehicle batteries, semiconductors, solar cells, medical equipment, steel and aluminum products, a pro-trade business group, representing a wide range of sectors consisting of “manufactures, retailers, technology firms, agribusiness groups, energy companies, and transport firms”, urged the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office (USTR) to hold a public hearing on this matter.

In addition, concerning the same tariff measure, “the group of 173 trade associations organized under the ‘American For Free Trade’ umbrella”, in a letter to the USTR, asked the U.S. government, in the interest of the public, to extend the public comment period for another month till 28 July. It was initially scheduled between 28 May and 28 June 2024.

Even though a wide variety of sectors had expressed their complaints and concerns on the ramifications of the duty measure introduced by the Biden administration in May, it was still adopted by the U.S. government on 13 September 2024. According the USTR, more than 1100 public comments concerning the tariff measure were received (what were the detailed content of the public comments? ).

The USTR claimed that, the economic analyses to relevant sources made by the U.S. government “generally” found that “the Section 301 tariffs have contributed to reducing U.S. imports of goods from the PRC and increasing imports from alternate sources, including the U.S. allies and partners, thereby potentially supporting U.S. supply chain diversification and resilience.”

Mathematically, it is not sure to what degree the U.S. has managed to reduce imports of Chinese products and in the meantime to increase the volume of imports from alternative sources. What we have seen so far is that inflation has become a serious issue under the current government, and that it had been one of the key discussing topics throughout the 2024 election season, together with the problems generated by illegal immigration and the wars in the Middle East and Europe etc..

The U.S. government vowed to tackle inflation. Nevertheless, the tariff measure is obviously contradictory to the government effort in addressing the problem of inflation.

Under this circumstance, it would be hard to convince the public that the U.S. has made a successful and wise move by applying the Section 301 tariffs, and also to make the public believe that the U.S. has managed to really and successfully diversified the country’s import sources, apart from causing disruptions to the market demand and supply.

Besides that, the U.S. government analyses also “generally” found that “the tariffs have had small negative effects on U.S. aggregate economic welfare.” The U.S. GDP figure could have not been affected dramatically, yet it is mostly driven by rising inflation, and it doesn’t have much relevance to the real economic situation and the real condition of American people’s lives. We should mention that in early 2024 the price of a simple carry-on had already reached $700, in contrast to its previous price of $425. As for other items, big or small, there is no doubt that American businesses and consumers have also been facing a lot of pressure led by the Section 301 tariffs and other restrictive measures taken by the U.S. government.

From Table 1, 2, and 3, cited from McGuireWoods, we can see that the increase rates related to the latest round of tariff measure on a variety of Chinese products are ranged from 25% to 100%. A 100% tariff increase rate has already been imposed on electric vehicles, syringes, and needles starting from 27 September 2024; and the same rate will be applied to enteral syringes and rubber medical and surgical gloves from 1 January 2026 and onward. Meanwhile, a 50% duty increase rate on solar cells will be effective from 27 September 2024, medical gloves and semiconductors from 1 January 2025, and facemasks from 1 January 2016.

For all the products being affected by the latest round of tariff measure as well as the enforcement dates of the tariff increases, see below Table 1, 2, and 3:

Table 1: Rate Increases Effective in 2024

(Tariff increases effective in 2024 apply to products imported on or after 27 Sept. 2024)

Table 2: Rate Increases Effective in 2025

(Tariff increases effective in 2025 apply to products imported on or after 1 Jan. 2025)

Table 3: Rate Increases Effective in 2026

(Tariff increases effective in 2026 apply to products imported on or after 1 Jan. 2026)

From the above, we can see that this round of tariff measure will expect to have an extended impact, which means that, even after the Biden government leaving office, the impact of the tariff increases will still be there, and that it will endure through the second term of the Trump government, as far as the new Trump administration wouldn’t do further adjustments to it. Apparently, it would create more challenges for the upcoming government to deal with inflation.

The ramifications of the tariff increases would take some time to fully show up. As just mentioned, the above tariff measure would lead to three rounds of tariff increases, respectively coming into effect from 27 September 2024, 1 January 2025, and 1 January 2026 and onward. 2026 will also be the year for mid-term election. If by then, inflation will still be a serious matter, the Trump government and the Republican party would likely face some trouble.

Back in 2018, when the former Trump government started to adopt tariff measures to deal with the country’s trade relations with China, by then nobody was quite sure what could be the ramifications of the relevant measures. Inflation wasn’t a big issue in the 2020 election, but it has been a serious issue facing the Biden government over the past few years. It cannot be denied that tariffs, along with the wars in Europe and the Middle East, are the main contributing factors to inflation and also to a lot of social problems.