Key points

● Syria’s new government has sent out a series of inclusive and constructive signals for restoring or reshaping Syria’s relationship with a wide variety of partners.

● The fall of the Assad regime wouldn’t likely cause a big impact on Russia’s presence in Syria in the near future.

● The Syrian new government needs to work out a more creative approach to engage with Israel.

● The fall of the Assad regime might open new possibilities for Iran-Syria relations.

● The former Syrian President Assad may still have some influence over Syria, yet the path for getting him back to the centre stage will be very hard (if not completely closed).

● The Syrian interim government is determined to build a different Syria in the future. So, for the interests of the Syrian new authority, it will need to be carefully handling the disputes raised among different religious groups within the society in the years ahead.  

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Syrians celebrate at the first Friday prayers since Bashar Assad’s ouster at the central square

in Damascus, Syria, on 13 December 2024. Cited from AP. (File Photo/Hussein Malla/AP).

The quick fall of the Syrian Bashar Assad regime in December 2024 without much struggle of the anti-Assad government forces had surprised many from various fields. After the Assad regime being toppled, numerous Syrian people gathered on the street to celebrate the end of the Assad ruling and the beginning of a new era, yet Syria’s future will still be full of challenges and uncertainties.

The Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), one of the few militant groups, had played a key role in leading to the fall of the Assad regime. Ahmad al-Sharaa, previously known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of the HTS, was appointed as head of state for a transitional period of the Syrian Arab Republic and “authorized to form a temporary legislative council for the transitional phase, which will carry out its duties until a permanent constitution is enacted and put into effect”, announced by Hassan Abdel Ghani, spokesman for the Syria Military Operations Command on 29 January 2025. 

Ahmad al-Sharaa speaks at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus on 8 December. Cited from CNN. (Omar Albam/AP/CNN).

Syria has been facing a tough and complicated situation for years already, both internally and externally. The possible approach adopted by the Syrian new government in the years ahead in dealing with various internal and external issues will critically affect Syria’s future domestic stability, the country’s foreign relations with other key stakeholders, and the peace in the broad Middle East region.

This piece tends to explore and analyse some of the very important factors which would most likely cause a big impact on Syria’s future.

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( Note: this article has been republished with an updated version )